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Simultaneous MLT YouTube Views
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Thanks, Jung. Unfortunately all those MLT originals are fairly recent, and therefore declining pretty fast. In a few days Club 27 will probably no longer be in the top twenty, likely to be replaced at #20 by I Saw Her Standing There.
The rooting psychology for this system is kind of perverse. Each new song enters the “charts” in an absolute free-fall, and you just hope that it will pull out of the dive before it crashes.
I cope by viewing it as a competition between the wily old veterans and the pretentious young upstarts. As the saying goes, youth and enthusiasm are no match for old age and treachery.
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Not much movement in the list over the past week, which isn’t too surprising since there haven’t been any new additions, which tend to be the most volatile.
As expected, Club 27 has exited the top twenty, with I Saw Her Standing There now occupying the #20 position. Also, You Really Got Me has ceded #10 to Till There Was You.
The biggest positive move was by Here, There and Everywhere, which went up two notches as a result of the decline of YRGM (by three spots) and Sunshine Superman (by one spot).
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David, I see on MLTs Youtube channel the aggregate views for all their videos since the beginning is at 64M plus (big as many countries). It wasn’t that long ago when it was around 10M to 20M. I wonder if there is a way to modify your formula to get an idea of how many simultaneous joyful moments are happening across all the MLT videos on Youtube, if it’s not too difficult. Some sort of a series formula?
I went to your top 20 list from July 2nd and added them all up and it looks like 92.1 simultaneous views across just the 20 videos.
I can see in the not too distant future MLT originals skyrocketing in views way past the covers. Just takes one original to connect with the masses like Janitor Joe, I Bought Myself a Politician etc…for the floodgates to open! The superlative talent for great song writing and musicianship is all there for it to happen, only a matter of time, patience, persistence, and perseverance (TPPP).
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That’s a cool idea, Jung, but the individual S values are averaged over periods of time ranging from one month to ten years, so I’m not sure how to combine them directly. I think what’s called for here is an overall “instantaneous” number based on perhaps just a day’s worth of data. I may make that my project for next weekend!
I believe what I’ll need to do is record the total number of views of MLT videos on two occasions, say one day apart, and subtract them to get the number of views in one day. Then the “master” S value would be the number of views per day, times the average length of a video in minutes, divided by the number of minutes in a day.
Just a few days ago I showed the videos of Close to You and Sweet Lorraine to a couple of people I know who are in their late 20’s, and they were both genuinely (not just politely) impressed with their creativity, and wanted to see some more. So yes, it’s just a matter of getting the word out that MLT knows how to write and perform enjoyable original music.
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I just woke up from my sound of silence with a new video to tabulate! The starting S value for Sound of Silence, based on data taken slightly over one hour after its release, is 121. I suspect this one is going to stay high in the rankings for quite a while.
Updates: after three hours, S = 109. (Not much of a decrease!) After six hours, S = 92. After nine hours, S = 76. After twelve hours, S = 67. After fifteen hours, S = 66. After eighteen hours, S = 65. (It seems to be plateauing at high altitude!)
After 24 hours, S = 59. After 30 hours, S = 59. After 36 hours, S = 58. After 42 hours, S = 56. After 48 hours, S = 53. After 60 hours, S = 49. After 72 hours, S = 47. After 84 hours, S = 45. After 96 hours (four days), S = 44.
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Awesome! Thanks David.
Just think ???? All those simultaneous smiles ????
JP
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Nice work David on pulling those stats. Sound of Silence hit it off with an impressive start, around 30K views in the first 24 hours. 🙂
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I keep hearing Mr Roarke’s voice,”Smiles, smiles everyone…”
If you know what I am talking about, we are definitely showing our age. LOL
TGIF
JP
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Yeah, JP, I imagine everyone who worked on that island kept rolling their eyes and thinking, “We know!”
One week after it was posted, the Sound of Silence video is still the boss at S = 44, right where it was three days ago. I can’t wait to see how it compares to the other top videos over the long haul.
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David, I won’t pretend to understand how you come up with all your formulas, but ‘Sound of Silence’ is around 130k views after a week. I know the rate is bound to drop, but if it didn’t, it would reach 1m after less than two months at that rate. What’s your best off-the-cuff guess (don’t waste your time figuring it) when it may reach that mark? Under six months, maybe?
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Well, Jeffery, I’d defer to Lynn’s expertise when it comes to predictions about the timing for reaching milestone numbers of views. I think Please Mr. Postman reached a million views in about six months. If I had already developed this formula when that video came out, I could compare the early numbers and make a forecast. But it certainly feels like Sound of Silence is going to be the fastest MLT video to get to a million.
The S value is proportional to the number of views per day, so the closer it stays to 44, the closer the time will be to two months. It’s remarkable that for the past week, at any given instant nearly four dozen people (on average) have been watching this video!
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Thanks, David! I’m deeply impressed with your, Lynn’s and Jung’s grasp on these formulae! I was good at math in school, and still use trig some days in my toolmaker job, but won’t pretend to understand to the degree of you three. Also too lazy…err..I mean too busy to try! Sure glad to have you guys to do the heavy mental lifting for me!
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After a week and a half, Sound of Silence is still going strong with S = 34. The total number of views is about to hit 150,000.
Update: it was sitting at EXACTLY 150,000 at 10:16 PM New York time (3:16 AM UT).
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Thanks, David! I just clicked over to check the count, and I can’t start this one without watching the entire performance along with 34 other smiling faces. It’s perfect.
149,917
JP
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David that is great to hear Sound of Silence is going strong. I hope it becomes the fastest to blow the roof off the 1M mark. Thanks for pulling it.
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