MLT Club Member David Herrick
MLT Club MemberForum Replies Created
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Continuing with Reacting to Our First Music Videos, for December 9th, V = 4615 and C = 57.5.
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How are the numbers going to evolve for Reacting to Our First Music Videos? The simultaneous views should stay relatively high for quite a while due to the length of the video, but I’m going to predict that the views per day will drop a little faster than they would for a standard song video. We’ll see!
For the last hour of December 8th, V = 9864 and C = 123.
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I agree with you, Sara. I can remember when you were forbidden to bring any recording devices into concerts, and they inspected your bag at the gate. If smart phones hadn’t completely replaced flip phones, perhaps they could reinstate that policy and let everyone enjoy the concert without having their views constantly obstructed by souvenir hunters.
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You’re right, Juergen; I should probably move it out to my back yard. I just hope the weather’s nice. Come on by; I’ll make sandwiches for everyone.
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Anyone and anywhere? That’s easy: the Beatles in my living room!
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I don’t know much about Russell, but I love his teapot analogy regarding the burden of proof for existential claims.
Essentially he said: suppose I claim that there is a teapot orbiting the Sun between Earth and Mars, too small to be seen by telescopes. Does it make more sense for you to accept that it’s true since you can’t disprove it, or to demand evidence of the teapot before you believe it?
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Here are the milestone predictions for the next month or so:
Revolution: 900,000 views on December 12th
Drive My Car (Cavern Club): 200,000 views on December 18th
I’m Looking Through You: 600,000 views on December 21st
Wake Up Little Susie (live): 300,000 views on December 22nd
Getting Better: 500,000 views on December 31st
All I Want Christmas to Be: 100,000 views on January 1st*
Morning Has Broken: 600,000 views on January 5th
*Given that Christmas videos tend to be viewed much more often in December, it’s likely that MLT’s Christmas song will reach 100,000 views much sooner than predicted. Based on the seasonal increase from last year, that milestone may be achieved around December 13th.
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Here’s the November report. All data are averaged over the period from November 2nd through December 2nd, except for the most recent two videos, Make Show and Pretty Little Thing, which are based on the numbers for the last four days and the last one day respectively.
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simultaneous views:
1) Please Mr. Postman / Wipe Out: C = 11.87 (-1.20)
2) While My Guitar Gently Weeps: C = 3.83 (+0.87)
3) Drive My Car (2012): C = 3.63 (+1.86)
4) Here Comes the Sun: C = 2.80 (-0.16)
5) Wish You Were Here: C = 2.58 (+0.69)
6) I Saw Her Standing There: C = 2.05 (+0.28)
7) Money (That’s What I Want): C = 2.02 (+1.18)
8) Vincent: C = 1.91 (-0.35)
9) You Can’t Do That: C = 1.86 (+0.21)
10) When I’m Sixty-Four: C = 1.72 (+0.03)
11) If I Fell: C = 1.70 (+0.01)
12) Africa: C = 1.69 (+0.21)
13) Day Tripper: C = 1.33 (+0.27)
14) Make Show: C = 1.29 (new)
15) Nowhere Man: C = 1.27 (+0.16)
16) Twist and Shout (w/ Mike Sweeney): C = 1.27 (+0.21)
17) Sound of Silence: C = 1.22 (+0.10)
18) Monalisa Twins Interview 2016: C = 1.21 (-0.02)
19) Till There Was You: C = 1.19 (+0.07)
20) This Boy: C = 1.19 (+0.10)
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views per day:
1) Please Mr. Postman / Wipe Out: V = 4186 (-422)
2) Drive My Car (2012): V = 1876 (+958)
3) While My Guitar Gently Weeps: V = 1209 (+275)
4) Here Comes the Sun: V = 1152 (-66)
5) I Saw Her Standing There: V = 872 (+122)
6) You Can’t Do That: V = 854 (+93)
7) When I’m Sixty-Four: V = 849 (+13)
8) If I Fell: V = 770 (+4)
9) Money (That’s What I Want): V = 769 (+448)
10) Wish You Were Here: V = 764 (+205)
11) Vincent: V = 645 (-119)
12) Till There Was You: V = 629 (+38)
13) Day Tripper: V = 582 (+119)
14) Nowhere Man: V = 566 (+72)
15) Twist and Shout (w/ Mike Sweeney): V = 521 (+86)
16) Sound of Silence: V = 513 (+40)
17) Please Please Me: V = 512 (+55)
18) I’m Looking Through You: V = 510 (-13)
19) This Boy: V = 506 (+40)
20) Africa: V = 503 (+63)
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16 of the top 20 videos increased in viewership: perhaps a bump from the release of the new album? The biggest surprise was Money, which jumped in views from #28 to #9. Make Show was ranked #22 in views, and Pretty Little Thing was #33.
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Continuing with Pretty Little Thing, for November 30th and the first half of December 1st — sorry, forgot last night due to visions of advent calendars dancing in my head — V = 373 and C = 0.45. For the second half of December 1st, V = 449 and C = 0.53. For December 2nd, V = 300 and C = 0.36. For December 3rd, V = 302 and C = 0.36. For December 4th, V = 268 and C = 0.32.
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That’s remarkable, Juergen! So much tedium went into that: the calculations, the measurements, the placements. But the result made all that effort worthwhile!
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Averaged over the past week, Make Show is at V = 516 and C = 1.46. (Maybe it IS plateauing!)
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Here’s a fairly obvious Beatles homage:
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Neve’s career as a rock star has taken flight! For Pretty Little Thing, for the last hour of November 25th, V = 4416 and C = 5.26. For November 26th, V = 2444 and C = 2.91. For November 27th, V = 1422 and C = 1.69. For November 28th, V = 863 and C = 1.03. For November 29th, V = 544 and C = 0.65.
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Hmmm… seems you would need some sort of finger extensions in order to take full advantage of that layout.
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Thanks, Tomás. Unfortunately the only numbers I’ve put in Excel are the monthly ones that I use for the monthly reports. The daily numbers at the beginning are what I’d like to use to generate the predictions, and the only place they’re recorded is here in the forum.
Over the holidays I should have some time to go through some of those and plot a few graphs, and see if a pattern emerges that could be used to estimate the long-term plateau levels. I’m hoping it would be something as simple as a typical time that it takes for the viewership to decline by a certain percentage, like a half-life.
